Jon Lester: Cy Young Any Time Soon?

After sifting through Josh Beckett's numbers following a Red Sox loss, I clearly had to come up with Lester's totals as well. This time, Boston's ace doesn't inspire as much confidence, as his record in games after a Boston loss stands at 4-4. Yet, he is 3-1 in his last four decisions in such games, with a chance to add another W in today's series finale with the Royals.

Just for a quick reference, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the most similar pitchers to Lester through age 26 (which would be through the end of last season for Lester), to see what kind of company he keeps and what we might expect from him in the future. Here's the list:

1. Tim Hudson
2. Johan Santana (2)
3. Cole Hamels
4. Jack McDowell (1)
5. John Smiley
6. Andy Pettitte
7. Bobby Shantz
8. Roy Halladay (2)
9. Steve Busby
10. Roy Oswalt
Comparison thanks to baseball-reference.com
Numbers in parenthesis indicate # of Cy Young Awards


The trophy cases of the men on that list hold five Cy Youngs (so far), along with a slew of all-star appearances. Lester won't get there this year the way Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander are going, but #31 is clearly heading in that direction. The curious thing about the guys on this list, is that Halladay had the highest ERA through age 26 at 3.84. His adjusted ERA+ has him faring a little better, while his current teammate Roy Oswalt is the leader of the group with a 141 ERA+. The former Astro also had the best traditional ERA through this point, at 3.11. As you might imagine, Lester falls somewhere in the middle of each category, with only Oswalt, Tim Hudson, and Johan Santana topping him in ERA+.

Also. The caveat here with Lester, as always, is that the man survived cancer--which makes his appearance on the above list that much more impressive. It's a testament to his skill that in 2011, the C-word barely gets a mention, and rightfully so. He's on the verge of becoming a great pitcher, and the focus should be on what he does, not on what might have gone wrong. But still, in any overview of a player's career, something like this has to get mentioned--to his credit.

Going by his stuff, and his spot atop a perpetually competitive squad, Lester looks like he's trending towards the likes of Halladay, Santana, and Black Jack McDowell, as opposed to the failed comedy stylings of Shantz & Busby.

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This Week's Most Encouraging Sign: Sox pull first triple play since 1994; A.J. Burnett pulls a Kevin Brown in Yankees clubhouse; Ryan Lavarnway picks up his first hit, RBI.

The Week's Worst: Alex Rodriguez returns to the Yankees lineup, while Boston is without Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis; Adrian Gonzalez still has just one homer since the break. Ouch.