Monday, August 29, 2011

Granderson Grabbing Lead In MVP Race?


With New York coming into town, 2 games back of the division lead and 6.5 games up on the Rays for the Wild Card, the upcoming three game set is significant, but probably won't decide anything in the long run. Which allows me to focus on the individual awards, things we all know are far more important and entertaining than any team accomplishments. 

Lately, the focus of the AL MVP race has been focused with laser-like intensity on Yankees centerfielder Curtis Granderson. Between his participation in the tri-headed grand slam extravaganza last week against the A's, and mashing his 37th and 38th homers yesterday in Baltimore, it seems as if he's grabbing this thing by the face. 

Since I love arbitrary statistical splits, let's take a look at his numbers from the last 18 games. His batting line is an impressive .304/.435/.797, which works out to a...wait for it...1.232 OPS during that stretch. The man is carrying the Yanks right now. Add in his 10 home runs and 18 RBI over the 18 games, and it's no wonder Granderson's staring at me over my morning coffee, monopolizing the baseball highlights. Aside from personal issues of baseball players watching me through television screens, the Yankee outfielder is giving the rest of the league major fits as well.

So, how is his competition playing out? A quick look:

(league leaders in bold ital)

Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
RBI
fWAR
rWAR
Bautista
.312
.452
.640
1.092
37
83
7.8
7.9
Ellsbury
.312
.369
.521
.889
23
82
7.4
6.4
Pedroia
.308
.398
.474
.872
17
71
7.2
6.6
Granderson
.278
.376
.595
.971
38
107
6.8
5.4
Gonzalez
.345
.406
.559
.965
23
103
5.8
6.0

Clearly, these stats do a bit of a disservice to players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, as a good portion of their value comes in base running and defense, but they're more than holding their own in the offensive categories as well. Jose Bautista, despite falling back to the pack a little lately, is still having the best year statistically, while Adrian Gonzalez is making a charge over the last week, clawing his way back into the discussion.

Having said all that, it's looking good for Granderson, because the assumption is that voters will split on the Red Sox candidates, and Bautista won't get the support on a non-playoff contender. Which leaves the Yankees outfielder. My guess is that he takes it, unless one of the guys from Boston gets red hot the rest of the way and his teammates fall off. Stay tuned.

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