Theo Compensation: Chris Carpenter...

Photo by J. Daniel/Getty Images

Misleading headlines are fun, aren't they? According to multiple Twitterings from Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald out of Chicago, the Cubs and Red Sox have settled the matter of compensation for Theo Epstein between themselves (read: without the help of Uncle Bud.)

Chicago will send minor-league pitcher Chris Carpenter (obviously not that Chris Carpenter) and the ever-infamous player to be named later (which generally never really amounts to anything at all) to the Red Sox for Theo and a PTBNL (to be decided by April 15th). The teams and league had to keep things on the up and up and since this was a baseball trade in the end, the PTBNLs had to be included.

Miles also tweets that Carpenter is a "Hard thrower, can hit 100. Potential closer down the line."

This seems to be a fair deal for all involved, especially since Baseball America has Carpenter listed as the 13th best prospect in the Cubs system (down from no. 6 in 2011). Hopefully he can can turn into a solid 8th inning guy within a year or two and provide some support for Bailey.

Wakefield to Announce Retirement

Well, it's official. Tim Wakefield is finally calling it quits according to a tweet from The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham this morning:

The Greek God of...Limping?

Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images

Advanced metrics. At times, they can be a tough tool to rely on--especially when it comes to measuring a fielder's effectiveness. Currently, the best--or at least most widely used system is Fangraph's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

I won't get into how it's calculated--Fangraphs itself does a much better job than I can pretend to here for those interested--and admittedly it has its flaws like any method of measuring a player's effectiveness, but over a period of a few seasons (preferably at least three) it can be more than a decent indicator of a player's worth in the field.

Which is why it's so tough to get a bead on Kevin Youkilis' effectiveness as a thirdbaseman. 

I don't want to think this thing to death, but after seeing David Ortiz coming back for another season following yesterday's arbitration settlement, it seems to me that this will be Papi's final year in Boston regardless of how he performs in 2012 (historically, hitters just can't hack it at age 37 and beyond without steroids). Especially with Youkilis' injury trouble over the past few years and Will Middlebrooks, who by all accounts looks like a spectacular defender, looming on the horizon, it seems as if Youk is primed to be the DH in 2013.

That is, if he re-signs after this season (his 4-year, $40 million dollar contract is up at the end of the year.) But contract talks and injuries aside, we're definitely in for another season of Youkilis at third for better or worse. 

So how to the numbers bear out?

Back to that pesky UZR. The 32-year old came in a below league average rating of -2.3, and -3.7 when prorated over 150 games last season. Compare that to league leaders Adrian Beltre (AL-12.3) and Placido Polanco (NL-14.0), and you can see that Youkilis' numbers don't exactly inspire confidence.

I can hear all of you screaming "But he was injured!"

Okay, okay, calm down. You're right. But can it safely be argued that he'll be healthy enough to get in a full season at the hot corner in 2012, which by the way, would only be his second at the position in his career? Probably not. 

The problem comes in that he doesn't really have the games played at third to effectively measure his performance over a three year period. He racked up 948.2 innings at the position in 2011, his next highest total coming in 2004--his rookie-season, in which he rated a whopping 7.0. 2009 saw him play 494.1 innings with another dismal -1.4 UZR rating. 

Will all of this add up to a new thirdbaseman for Boston in 2013? Possibly. My guess is that he will still be a valuable enough hitter to warrant keeping around at DH, despite his poor showing last year. Hopefully he stays injury free and earns himself an extension.

Olney Report: Ortiz Settles

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, David Ortiz and the Red Sox have settled at the midpoint of $14.5 million dollars. Good situation on both sides: Boston gets one of the most productive DHs in the game for another season and saves $2 million off the sticker price, while Papi gets a nice raise following a good season.

Best of all? The Red Sox get a happy, or at least content Ortiz. Because if he'd lost his case, his attitude would've made everyone in the room feel as awkward as being hugged from the back from their favorite teacher (shivers).

Also, does anyone think it's time to up that $6 million dollar offer to Roy Oswalt with the cash they're saving?

On Josh Beckett and the Personal Catcher

Type "Josh Beckett Complains" into Google, and you're treated to 1,510,000 results. Hit Google image search, and you can bear witness to this dreamy image:

Smoooooooth.

Clearly, this really isn't a fair assessment of anything, as you can probably get a 500,000-plus Google hits on anything from "Abe Lincoln fights a grizzly" to "Donald Duck is a facist pig." Doesn't make it true. But what it does illustrate is that Josh Beckett has gained a reputation as a bit of a complainer.

Tony Massarotti and Mike Felger of afternoon drive fame on 98.5 the Sports Hub here in Boston have dubbed him the "Texas Tough Guy," a nickname I whole heartedly endorse--if only because it makes me chuckle every time it comes up. His distinction as a big game pitcher gained in the '03 and '07 World Series has suffered greatly here in recent years, a change which can probably be pinpointed somewhere around the '08 ALCS implosion vs. Tampa Bay.

It's true that Beckett hasn't exactly lived up to the billing of a number-one starter since the sweep in Colorado, aside from flashes here and there. Accusations of complacency late in the season abound, with the pitching staff and Beckett in particular taking the brunt of that ire. Fine.

But what is forgotten in all of this is that Josh Beckett had a more-than-decent season in 2011, posting a 2.93 ERA and nearly hitting the 200 inning mark. He was better than many thought, while no longer bearing the expectations of staff ace (outside of his own mind anyway). But he did so with Jason Varitek calling the shots behind the plate.

Beckett pitched exactly zero games without the former captain as his backstop last season, and it remains to be seen how this will affect him in 2012. I was all set to put together a nice chart comparing Beckett's numbers with Varitek catching and without--because, you know, stats prove a point a hell of a lot better than humor does--but there's nothing to report. JV was his one and only.

How weird will it be for the Texas Tough Guy this year? Will he feel unfaithful and a little unclean with Saltalamacchia back there? Who knows what goes on in the mind of a baseball player. My guess is that it will probably affect him a whole lot less than he thinks.

Keep Papi, No Matter the Cost

David Ortiz looks like the Cookie Monster. Does this make him a good DH? Not necessarily. But among baseball players who resemble Sesame Street characters, he's almost certainly the best of the bunch. And that's got to be worth something.

Why does any of this matter?  Aside from indicating that I've been spending entirely too much time with my 3-year old daughter, Mr. Ortiz is up for an extremely rare arbitration hearing this Monday in Florida--a situation which is summed up nicely here by WEEI.com's Alex Speier. He  writes:

"The $3.85 million difference between the salary that Ortiz is requesting ($16.5 million) and the one that the team is offering ($12.65 million) could, in theory, represent the cost of acquiring a player like Matt Garza near the trade deadline."

Clearly, money spent now is money they won't have in July. Obviously Ben Cherington does not want to burn all of his resources immediately and hang himself out to dry at the trading deadline.

Yet.

What would they do at DH should Ortiz win the hearing and the team choose not to sign him? One possibility would be to give Papi's spot to Kevin Youkilis (which could help some of his injury issues) and hand third base to top prospect Will Middlebrooks. An exciting thought, but Middlebrooks isn't ready just yet, though Soxprospects.com compares his career track to Scott Rolen's.

Rumors are abound that a settlement will be reached, but if Ortiz gets his $16.5 million asking price (as opposed to Boston's $12.65), the team should take it and move on. Sure, he abuses the cookie dough from time to time, but no one's been better than he has at designated hitting over the past few years, despite fan perception that he is falling off.

A quick look at the numbers easily demonstrates this. Last year, of the 11 hitters who had at least 500 at-bats at the position, Ortiz was by far the best. Fangraphs has number 34 sitting atop the fWAR leaders with a total of 4.2, followed by Michael Young of the Rangers at 3.8 and Chicago's Paul Konerko at 3.1. No one else even topped three.

Papi put up a slash line of .309/.398/.554 with 29 homers and 98 RBIs in 2011. Those number would be stunningly hard to replace at this point in the offseason, even with a Youkilis--who is engaged to Tom Brady's sister oh by the way--slash Middlebrooks shift.

From 2009 (a season in which his power stroke, and therefore his career, was considered done) through last year, Ortiz is third in fWAR with 7.0. That's just behind free agent Johnny Damon's 7.3 and Detroit's Victor Martinez's 10.6. The difference being Papi is primarily a DH while Damon added slightly to his value by playing the outfield and ditto Martinez at catcher.

In any case, David Ortiz still has tremendous value on and off the field and Boston will be better with him in the lineup whether they lose the hearing or not.

Compensation For Theo

It's Groundhog day. So in the spirit of Bill Murray, it's time to review things again and again and again. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Theo Epstein compensation saga!


Listen, Matt Garza is not coming to Boston, and never was. So who, or what, is? The precedent for these things isn't exactly promising, as Baseball Nation's Al Yellon points out:


"In 1994, when the Cubs hired Twins executive Andy MacPhail as their general manager, they sent minor-league pitcher Hector Trinidad — a top prospect at the time — as compensation. Trinidad never pitched in the major leagues."


So the Cubs are the one's stealing everyone's women! I never did trust that little blue bumbling bear. But in a baseball sense, the likelihood that Boston ends up with anything of significance out of this entire process is extremely small. 


Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Uncle Bud Selig is still waiting on "written arguments in Cubs-Red Sox compensation case," but the hall of fame writer expects Chicago to send over "an A level prospect." Whom shall that prospect-to-be named eventually be? I won't pretend to have any insight into Uncle Bud's mind, but here's a list of the Cubs' top-20 prospects of 2012 for those of you who are interested.


Here's a list of homegrown Cubs that have done much of anything in the last 20 years: Starlin Castro, Kerry Wood, and Harry Caray's corpse. That's it. Three.


In any case, after a tumultuous but ultimately lackluster offseason, comedian Jim Norton summed up the situation nicely earlier this morning on Twitter: "It's Groundhog Day! Punxsutawney Phil poked his head out and saw the business end of a shotgun."


I simply wonder if there's any room in front of those barrels for a worn out Red Sox fan.

Roy Oswalt: Master Negotiator

As anyone who watches shows like Pawn Stars and other public haggling matches can attest, declaring your intentions before the deal is concluded is terrible form. Almost as bad as stealing Jobu's rum.


Which is exactly why Roy Oswalt has put himself in a terrible position, seemingly sticking by his declaration that he will pitch only for the Rangers or Cardinals this upcoming season. This is starting to resemble one of those slit-eyed retirees who stumble into the shop and simply must sell that Colt .45 under orders from their fire-breathing hag of a wife. Well, it does to me anyway. 


The problem is, it's a tight squeeze for both teams. Foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports that "the Cardinals, perhaps trying to exert their leverage, have not made Oswalt a financial offer that the pitcher deems anywhere close to sufficient, according to one major-league source." Which means Boston still might have a chance if they swoop in with a big offer, especially considering the Rangers don't have a spot in their rotation for him. 


Roy Oswalt can still pitch. Roy Oswalt also has a giant head. These are both facts. Yet aside from that, no one, not even the 34-year old righty knows which color the the size nine cap he sports will encircle his head in 2012. 

Stupid Sexy Talent

The likelihood of Ben Cherington splurging on a multi-year deal for Cardinals free-agent starter Edwin Jackson is next to nothing, what with the money tree at Fenway finally ceasing to sprout leaves this winter. Yet the idea of a one-year deal for the Boras client remains intriguing, although probably not feasible at this point, as Peter Gammons tweeted earlier that "Jackson claims 3-4 multi-year offers," with the Sox not likely to be one of those doing the offering.


Hypothetically, would a multi-year deal be worth it? My gut tells me no. Why would Boston splurge on a starter who they would clearly have to overpay to bring in, simply to replace John Lackey's innings and bloated contract? I'm having nightmares of Jackson eating his way to an 8-14 record for the third straight season while gravity pulls his growing waistline closer and closer to the infield dirt.


A closer look at the projections backs this up (well, maybe not the weight thing, but numbers-wise.) Bill James predicts an 11-12 record, and an ERA north of 4.00 with just over 200 innings thrown for the 28-year old this upcoming season. Good numbers for a guy who would slot in as the fourth starter, but not the sort that should have gobs of cash thrown at them. Haven't there been enough recent examples for teams to learn this?


Luckily, with the Dice-K and Lackey disasters staring them in the face, the Sox brass seems to be making the smart play here. But it remains to be seen if the market will force Jackson into a 1-year deal, possibly putting Boston back in the running. Again, this looking impossible now with Ken Rosenthal and Gammons stating Jackson has received several multi-year offers.


Prediction? Someone will give him a 3 or 4 year deal. He's only 28, shows signs that he is finally "getting it," and still rocks that no-hit stuff he's had since the Dodgers drafted him in the sixth-round back in '01. As we have seen time and time again, that sort of talent will always seduce someone.

Jose Iglesias: Here's Hoping

Shortstop. It's been a bit of a sore spot since 2004. You remember, the moment Theo made the trade, shipping Nomar to the Cubs and acquiring postseason stalwart Orlando Cabrera, jump-starting the team in the process and propelling them to the title.


Take a moment...bask in it. There you go.


The turnstile has been a-spinnin' from that point on.


So to ask the fanbase to endure a wildly unexciting amalgamation of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto--or, Mick Apuntoviles as I like to call them--for a season is not exactly out of the ordinary. As unconventional as a shortstop platoon is, they can probably keep the position afloat until something better comes along.


Punto, a lumpy approximation of a middle infielder, is flashy with the glove--a notion which probably marks the first time the words flashy and Punto have found themselves in the same vicinity of one another. The former Cardinal split time at third, the outfield, yet saw just eight games as short last season. In any case, Bobby Valentine will probably see above average defense out of Lumps...err, Punto.


Aviles is an average utility man at best, slightly below palatable with both the glove and bat. Not much  more to say than that. These two will not be seen posing with pornstars and lighting up the talk radio airwaves in 2012. The best case scenario for these two is that they go completely unnoticed--which would mean they're doing their jobs without screwing up too badly.


But. There is hope on the horizon. Fresh, doe-eyed hope, and it comes in the form of 22-year old prospect Jose Iglesias. So much hope that soxprospects.com describes him as "a future perrenial gold-glove shortstop." The kid is a whiz at short. He's got the ability to step on the field opening day.


The future with the latest Mr. Prospect is well, lumpier than many think. As a public service, I'm cautioning everyone to hold off on their excitement about Iglesias before it even really begins, which it probably will sometime in 2012.


Specifically, he needs to make some serious adjustments at the plate.


For a quick and dirty comparison, Dustin Pedroia posted an OPS of .810 during his final full season in the minors ('06), while Iglesias put up a paltry .554 last year with Pawtucket. Yeesh.  That would put him right around .100 points below Punto's career average of .652 in 11 seasons.  Nobody expects Iglesias to step in and remind people of the plucky second baseman, but those numbers won't put him much higher than a defensive replacement on a major league roster. 


Iglesias likely make an appearance in spring training, season himself in Pawtucket, and be recalled when Valentine and everyone else gets fed up with Mr. Lumps and his sidekick. 


But while  this beacon of hope will probably be on the minds of many fans this summer as the public begins screaming for shortstop options following the surprising exit of Marco Scutaro, don't look for Iglesias to become a major league star--this season or any time after that.

Verlander: Sox Potential Playoff Nightmare?

The dreaded phrase: "If The Season Ended Today" crossed my mind last night for one very specific, fear inducing reason: Justin Verlander. When media-types are uttering phrases like "Pedro '99" in regards to an opposing pitcher, you probably don't want to see that guy on the mound, especially I.T.S.E.T.

Verlander: product of Goochland, VA

The popular consensus seems to have overcome the pitcher-bias for many and has shifted favorite status to the Tigers starter in the AL MVP race. At least for today.  Following yesterday's win over the White Sox, even  mlb.com tweeted this morning: "Justin Verlander's win total is old enough to drink..." No matter how one describes it, this is Verlander's summer, and he & both his 100MPH fastballs will be remembered years from now. That said, things could shift back in the direction of Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury if the Tigers fall too far out of contention.


A quick check of the standings shows that the 10-0 bludgeoning at the hands of the Rangers last night dropped Boston a half game behind the Yankees, which means that New York would draw Detroit as of this writing. Clearly, Texas can match up with either East power, so missing Verlander wouldn't exactly leave Bostonians dancing in the streets. But whether or not the Red Sox are in line to face Verlander's Tigers on September 3rd is not entirely the issue.


The question on the table here is: can Verlander (essentially) win a playoff series by himself?


The quick answer is yes. Of course he can get hot and take over the division series, and if things line up right in the LCS, he can conceivably dominate the next round too. But how many times has it actually happened? Has a pitcher, with essentially soft-serv ice cream machines lining up behind him in the rotation, ever been able to pull something like that off?


The obvious comparison that springs to mind is Pedro Martinez in 1999. Robbed of the Cy Young-MVP sweep that season (with Ivan Rodriguez taking the MVP trophy for the Rangers), Pedro was in a rotation that saw Kent Mercker start game 1 of the LCS. So you can pretty much imagine the quality of the other starters on that squad. Verlander is in a similar situation this year.


Of course, the reason Pedro didn't pitch the first game against the Yankees that year, was that he was too busy putting on one of the greatest pitching performances playoff baseball has ever seen, tossing six no-hit innings in relief the previous game to clinch the LDS over the Indians.

Like no. 45 did for the Red Sox that year, Verlander has a chance at the AL pitching triple-crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts). He's got a big lead in wins and strikeouts, and his 2.34 ERA is just a tick behind LA's Jered Weaver (2.34) at this point.

For comparison's sake, here's a list of all the pitching triple-crown winners since 1995 (the inception of the Division Series):

Year  Lg   Player                 Team                      ERA   W      K
1997   AL   Roger Clemens    Blue Jays              2.05   21   292
1998   AL   Roger Clemens    Blue Jays              2.65   20   271
1999   AL   Pedro Martinez   Red Sox                 2.07   23   313
2002  NL   Randy Johnson   Diamondbacks   2.32   24   334
2006  AL   Johan Santana     Twins                     2.45   19   277
2007  NL   Jake Peavy           Padres                    2.54   19   240

The only guys on this list to make the playoffs in their triple-crown years were Pedro in '99, Johnson in '02, and Santana in '06. How did they fare? Martinez had the aforementioned legendary relief appearance, but he bowed out of game 1 in the fourth inning due to injury, his only other outing.

In '02 the Big Unit still had Curt Schilling by his side, but he took the loss in game 1 as the Dbacks were swept 3-0 by St. Louis. Ditto Santana in '06, as the Twins ace took the mound and the L in the opener en route to an Oakland sweep. Aside from Pedro in '03, no triple-crown winner has even made a significant contribution to his team winning a game under the current playoff structure, let alone single-handedly locking down the entire series.

What about MVP pitchers you say? Glad you asked. There have been exactly four guys to win most valuable player in since 1980, and only one of them was a starter: Roger Clemens in 1986.  Clemens went 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 Ks during the regular season. The Rocket was mediocre during those playoffs, dominating neither series and posting a 3.97 ERA. The Sox won 2 out of the 5 games he started. You get the point: he didn't hold ultimate sway over the series.

So, is it possible Justin Verlander can single-handedly win a playoff round? It's possible. But not probable, as we see from the above lists. Sure, there have been guys to do so in the past (see: Orel Hershiser, 1988) but they usually aren't the people we expect to do it by applying how the regular season played out to the postseason model. Knowing this, any fan of the Red Sox should welcome the opportunity to beat up on Verlander's staff-mates over another tousle with Mike Napoli and the Rangers.
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In case you were wondering, here's how Verlander's numbers look against current playoff teams:

Split      W L  ERA GS CG   IP  H R ER HR BB SO BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
Boston     1 0 1.72  2  0 15.2 10 3  3  2  2 12 58 0.766  6.9  6.00
New York   0 0 4.50  2  0 12.0 11 6  6  1  8 16 53 1.583 12.0  2.00
Texas      0 1 2.00  1  1  9.0  6 2  2  0  1  4 33 0.778  4.0  4.00

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2011.

5 Random Observations: Yankees Series

I'm sure most of you were sleeping through this series, what with meaningless games dragging on over the four-hour mark mid-week in September and whatnot. Even the players are complaining at this point. In any case, the Sox held a 1.5 game lead coming into the series, and a half-game margin going out, leaving New York up 8.5 games over Tampa in the Wild Card race. Without further adieu, here's a few notes about the last three days:

1. Long, Long, Long: We all know these rivalry games are as long as John Lackey's face after a trip to a Mensa meeting, but Jon Lester's first inning in last night's 4-2 loss was brutal. It took the Boston ace 43 pitches to strike out the side, which sent me on one of my many empty stat searches. I tried in vane to find the record for the highest amount of pitches thrown while striking out the side, but came up with nothing. My guess is this inning has to be close. Somebody needs to get on this so I can sleep at night.

2. MVP Watch: I'm probably overly obsessed with this award, but with four AL candidates showcasing their talents in this one series alone, the individual race was more in the forefront than the chase for the pennant. That said, in 15 games against Boston, Curtis Granderson has hit just .218/.377/.436, and he didn't fare much better over this last three-game set. He did, however, make this run-saving grab off the bat of Jed Lowrie in the 6th inning last night:

Granderson: "These grass stains will be hell to remove."

Granderson, who seemed to be the favorite to take the award coming into the series, did nothing to push the needle in either direction, while Jacoby Ellsbury continued to make his case, hitting .364 with a 1.264 OPS over the past three days.

3. Rocco Cervelli: The boisterous New York catcher has been dubbed by many "The Yankee Clapper" following his antics during the past week, which is okay by me. Endearing to New York fans and rage-inducing to Boston rooters, Cervelli and his new moniker simultaneously prove puns can still be hilarious and that this rivalry hasn't lost its punch. Anything that stirs things up like that among playoff contenders this late in the season is a welcome sight.

4. On Second Thought: This incident deserves a closer look. Here are the four stages of emotion, as occurred in Tuesday's scuffle:

Anger.

Confusion.

Revenge (Sabathia)/Dementia (Posada).

Penis Envy.

5. Adrian Gonzalez/David Ortiz: You may have noticed the Boston firstbaseman's torrid pace was slowed down considerably by Yankee pitching. He posted just a .167/.286/.250 slash line, with 0 RBI this time around. Meanwhile, Big Papi is as hot as he's ever been. Since returning from a 10-day hiatus on August 24th, he's hit .500/.559/1.067, with 4 HRs and 9 RBI over eight games. Yikes.

Do Not Boo This Man

I'm assuming if you're reading this, you're not a major leaguer. I'm also going to take for granted that if you've played baseball in the outfield, you've made an error similar to this one Josh Reddick committed last night:

Walk of Shame: Not a reference to your typical Sunday Morning.

The ball scoots by you on the outfield grass, and you have to go chasing it like CC Sabathia after a Little Debbie's truck. It's a squirm inducing situation for both the player and whomever's witnessing the red-faced march--a play I like to call the outfielder's walk of shame. Well, maybe scramble of shame. Hot embarrassment combined with zealous urgency to recover your position as your baseball life flashes before your eyes. Whatever you dub it, it's not fun for anyone.


Okay, so maybe that was just me as a little-leaguer.


It's certainly a bloodbath in that right field corner sometimes, and that play off of Eric Chavez's bat is probably one most outfielders would've flubbed. Same thing happened to Carlos Gonzalez in Arizona last night. Reddick immediately dropped his head after the ball caromed off the wall, and the walk began.


So, if you find yourself snickering at a play like this, remember: you did it too. Admit it. Just a public service announcement from Life on the Wagon. On a side note, Reddick qualified, his UZR of 8.1 would put him sixth defensively among AL outfielders. So there.

Sox Acquire Conor Jackson

On the eve of baseball's "we're serious this time" trading deadline, Boston acquired 1B/OF Conor Jackson from Oakland for nothing-prospect Jason Rice, according to the Globe's Peter Abraham. The move is meant to bolster the Sox depth against lefties, giving them a right-handed hitting option off the bench not named Darnell McDonald (see: his embarrassing whiff against Boone Logan Tuesday night with the bases loaded).

Before injuries began to plague Jackson in 2009, he was about a .285, 15-HR guy over the span of three seasons for the Diamondbacks.

An Appeal To Fans, by John Lackey

Dear Red Sox Nation,

Guys--come on. Am I really that bad?  Do I deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as Matt Clement, Steve Avery, and Matt Young? Blarghararghargh argh. I think not ladies and gentlemen.  How many times did those guys shut down the Yankees this late in the season? That's what I thought.

Sure, my ERA is as hefty as my lower jaw, but just look at what else I bring to the mound. Blargharargharghargh.Who else will give you guys the riveting interviews that I can? Blargh. Who else will stand there and bulldog Rocco Cervelli as he claps in Salty's face. No one but me baby. I'm the Roy Hobbs of hitting people between the numbers. The spittle running down my chin alone strikes fear in the hearts of men.

 Bllllllaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.

Some people make the assumption that my IQ is a tad low, hurling epithets such as "Professor Lackey" my way. That's fine, I can handle the pressure. But I ask you, is my diminutive mental capacity such a bad thing? I can barely remember the last hitter once he steps out of the box. Seriously, I don't know who that guy was that I drilled last night, or even what the fight was all about. I just remember closing my eyes really hard like I do at night when the lights go out, and throwing the ball as fast I could to make the scary ghosts fly away.

Boy, they can get really frightening sometimes. Just like that guy on my cereal box Count Chocula. He scares me every morning with his devious laugh, constantly staring at me with those bug eyes. But my wife just tells me to close my eyes and count to ten. Most of the time it calms me down. Sometimes, Jason has me do the same thing on the mound, but I just end up imagining him as my wife, and I get confused. Sexually.

Blargharghargh...uh, where was I? Oh right, someone told me that I was a World Series hero once. I don't know about all that. All I know is that I thought I was signing in Milwaukee and I ended up here. Mr. Henry promised me they were hiring Soce to manage out here and that was good enough for me--I signed right up.  I was hoping to experience all of the fine beer and cheeses in Wisconsin, but Mr. Henry keeps me stocked up with Count Chocula, so that's good too.

Sometimes they let me watch my cartoons on the giant scoreboard in the bleachers, which is pretty cool. I invited my friends Jered and Torii over to watch Phineas and Ferb with me someday, but they're always too busy to come. I guess I'll just have to play this giant XBox by myself for now.

Anyway, you guys sure are loud out there, and a little scary too. Could you tone it down a little bit? I'm tired of imagining you all naked to calm my nerves, I need all the brain power I can muster out there.

Thanks, John Lackey

Boston Red Sox

Lavarnway Sent Down

With David Ortiz returning to the lineup, rookie DH/C Ryan Lavarnway was sent back to Pawtucket (Scott Atchison being recalled). In seven games with Boston, he held his own with a .304/.407/.391 line. Not bad for his first go-around.

Physically, he reminds me of a young Travis Hafner, with a little less talent than Pronk (sorry, it's a personal rule to never miss a Pronk reference). Simply because I wonder about things like this, here's a comparison between Hafner's last real season in the minors (2002) and Lavarnway's combined numbers between Portland and Pawtucket this year:

Lavarnway

Year   Age    Lg   G  AB  R   H HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
2011   23 AAA/AA 110 417 71 122 30  85 .293 .372 .559 .931

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/27/2011.

Hafner
Year Age Lg G AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS

2002    25 AAA 110 401 79 137 21  77 .342 .463 .559 1.022  

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 8/27/2011.

 As you can see, Hafner posted monster numbers in his age 25 season, with a 1.022 OPS. But Lavarnway's season has been above average in it's own right, and the splits between AA/AAA (sorry, too lazy to post those), show improvement as he moves up the ranks. He was tearing up AAA pitching before being called up. Also, Lavarnway is still only 23, whereas Hafner didn't see significant playing time with the Indians until he was 26. That said, it would be something of a minor miracle if he matches Hafner's 2006 season (a year in which he lead the league with an 1.097 OPS). But with continued improvement, it's easy to see him as a decent option to replace Ortiz in a season or two, or as tantalizing trade-bait over the next couple of years. Stay tuned.


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UPDATE:
Scott Atchison lasted all of five innings this time around, with the Sox recalling Michael Bowden Saturday morning, according to a report by mlb.com.

Five Observations On Series With Texas

We were warned coming into this series: the Rangers are a supremely talented club. One that, while perhaps not superior to Boston or New York in any of the four major areas (lineup, starters, bullpen, defense), is more consistent across the board than their eastern rivals. Nobody was paying attention to them. East Coast bias and all that.


While it may be true that Texas belongs in the American League power-triumvirate with Boston and New York, the Red Sox decisive 3-1 series win reminded everyone why they are the AL favorite to go to the World Series. Here's a quick roundup of how that happened:


1. Adrian Gonzalez: Take a look at this completely unscientific, but wholly awesome split...


July 31-Aug 22: .274/.337/.369, .706 OPS, O HR, 5 RBI
Last 3 Games: .583/.643/1.833, 2.476, 5 HR, 8 RBI


Apparently, he misplaced his cape for a month, when Dustin Pedroia was discovered to have it balled up in the bottom of his locker as a practical joke. Gonzalez now has his trusty cape, and superhero status back. Last night, he told mlb.com's Ian Browne: 


"I hit them in spurts. Everybody knows that. When I have a good swing, it's just a feeling I have, and you hit them in bunches. It's a time right now when I feel good. Hopefully I can continue swinging like that tomorrow."


2. Professor Lackey's Wild Ride: I will continue to maintain that John Lackey makes me nervous, and demonstrated why in the 11-5 win on Tuesday, as he was bailed out by the offense gorging itself on the souls of innocent Ranger pitching. The fact that the words "nervous" and "John Lackey" appear in the same sentence isn't exactly a Jamesian observation, but it's worth pointing out since Lackey is a deceptive 7-1 over his last nine starts. Beware the Ides of  Lackey!


3. Andrew Miller: Last night, Miller pitched 6 and 1/3 innings of scoreless ball in his best start of the season. Which sort of makes me mad. Every time he pitches well, we're reminded of his tantalizing abilities. From his high draft pedigree (6th overall by the Tigers), to his tearing up the college ranks (Golden Spikes finalist at UNC),  to being named Cape league MVP, his left arm donates talent by osmosis to anyone within a five foot radius. Will he ever truly put it together and become a front of the line starter? Probably not. But the building blocks are there, and it's frustrating. I hate guys like that. Grrrr.


On a side note, The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham twote during last night's game: "Andrew Miller leaves in the 7th inning up 6-0 and Texas is playing 'Hit the Road, Jack.' Um ...." Hilarious.


4. Jacoby Ellsbury/David Ortiz Return: Neither player skipped a beat offensively, but just as important, Ellsbury was back playing golden glove caliber centerfield. Also, Papi needed to rest his aching bones for the playoff run. Well done by both the front office and the player in each case. 


5. Must be the blue eyes: Aside from a home run at the expense of Professor Lackey on Tuesday, reigning MVP Josh Hamilton was held in check, hitting just .167 in the series. Hamilton's woes contributed to the Rangers being outscored 30-11 in the four game set.


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AND ANOTHER THING: 


More surprising (to me at least), than the fact that the Yankees hit three grand slams in a single game for the first time in baseball history (in a 22-9 win over Oakland), was that Jorge Posada played second base. I wasn't so sure if his knees were still considered joints or just pegs at this point, but Joe Girardi apparently thought it was a good idea to  put him in the field. More surprising than that, I saw a graphic on SportsCenter this morning under a shot of Posada fielding a routine ground ball, saying that the C/DH was playing second for the first time since 1991. 


Wait a minute, he's done this before? We all know that I am a liar and an idiot, but  missing that one is surprising even for me. I blame the air pressure changes from Irene racing up the east coast.

Five Observations On Series With Rays

What just happened? Three games in a 24-hour period, and a pair of losses to the third place Rays? Ouch. Boston was tied with New York on Tuesday morning for first place in the AL East, and now find themselves a half game back due to Joe Maddon and company. Not a disaster, but that's a couple of tough series in a row. Here's five quick notes on the three game set:

1. Desmond Jennings is good: We finally get a our first real look at the man who makes B.J. Upton expendable on the Rays' roster. Jennings had a pair of at-bats in two games last year against Boston, but he clearly wasn't ready at that point. This year, he's carrying a 1.056 OPS, an is 9th in the league in fWAR (1.1) among rookies, with only 24 games played. Incidentally, Josh Reddick is fourth with a 1.6 fWAR, with Dustin Ackley leading the league at 2.3.

2. The Rays' starters were historic over the last two days: According to Jack Edwards during the post game show on NESN, this is the first time in Boston's history that they gathered three or fewer hits in three consecutive games.

3. More WAR!!!: Both David Price, and James Shields, with identical 11-10 records, find themselves in the top 10 in fWAR among American League starters. This should come as no surprise to anyone who witnessed their domination over a Boston offense which leads the world in just about every category.

4. Upton: Clearly, the Rays got the worst of the deal in the Upton brothers sweepstakes (with younger brother Justin among the leading candidates for NL MVP). But, B.J.'s blast off of John Lackey yesterday gave everyone in the vicinity horrendous flashbacks to the '08 ALCS when Upton pulled his best impression of Mr. October in knocking off the Red Sox in seven games. The Rays outfielder hit .324/.394/.786, with 4 homers and 11 RBI. Yeesh.

5. Ray Attack: Literally, there was an attack by an electric ray off the coast of Rockport over the weekend. An evil portend if I've ever witnessed one.

MIDDLE RELIEF!!!!!

I admit it, getting excited about setup men is about as appealing as hearing about an encounter between Jim Norton and a Brazilian hooker in some back alley. Unsettling at best. Yet, the parallels between Boston's Daniel Bard and NY's David Robertson are there, and well, about as intriguing as Jim Norton and a Brazilian hooker. A quick look at the ace relievers:

	Age	Salary	W	L	G	IP	ERA	K/9	BABIP	fWAR	rWAR
Robertson	26	$460,450	3	0	47	43.2	1.44	14.0	.315	1.8	2.1
Bard	26	$505,000	1	5	51	52.1	2.41	8.6	.212	1.0	1.6

Robertson has clearly been the more valuable pitcher this year, but Bard has been no slouch. A number to keep an eye on is BABIP, where Robertson is over .100 points higher than Bard, suggesting that he could come crashing back to Earth very soon.