Verlander: Sox Potential Playoff Nightmare?

The dreaded phrase: "If The Season Ended Today" crossed my mind last night for one very specific, fear inducing reason: Justin Verlander. When media-types are uttering phrases like "Pedro '99" in regards to an opposing pitcher, you probably don't want to see that guy on the mound, especially I.T.S.E.T.

Verlander: product of Goochland, VA

The popular consensus seems to have overcome the pitcher-bias for many and has shifted favorite status to the Tigers starter in the AL MVP race. At least for today.  Following yesterday's win over the White Sox, even  mlb.com tweeted this morning: "Justin Verlander's win total is old enough to drink..." No matter how one describes it, this is Verlander's summer, and he & both his 100MPH fastballs will be remembered years from now. That said, things could shift back in the direction of Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury if the Tigers fall too far out of contention.


A quick check of the standings shows that the 10-0 bludgeoning at the hands of the Rangers last night dropped Boston a half game behind the Yankees, which means that New York would draw Detroit as of this writing. Clearly, Texas can match up with either East power, so missing Verlander wouldn't exactly leave Bostonians dancing in the streets. But whether or not the Red Sox are in line to face Verlander's Tigers on September 3rd is not entirely the issue.


The question on the table here is: can Verlander (essentially) win a playoff series by himself?


The quick answer is yes. Of course he can get hot and take over the division series, and if things line up right in the LCS, he can conceivably dominate the next round too. But how many times has it actually happened? Has a pitcher, with essentially soft-serv ice cream machines lining up behind him in the rotation, ever been able to pull something like that off?


The obvious comparison that springs to mind is Pedro Martinez in 1999. Robbed of the Cy Young-MVP sweep that season (with Ivan Rodriguez taking the MVP trophy for the Rangers), Pedro was in a rotation that saw Kent Mercker start game 1 of the LCS. So you can pretty much imagine the quality of the other starters on that squad. Verlander is in a similar situation this year.


Of course, the reason Pedro didn't pitch the first game against the Yankees that year, was that he was too busy putting on one of the greatest pitching performances playoff baseball has ever seen, tossing six no-hit innings in relief the previous game to clinch the LDS over the Indians.

Like no. 45 did for the Red Sox that year, Verlander has a chance at the AL pitching triple-crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts). He's got a big lead in wins and strikeouts, and his 2.34 ERA is just a tick behind LA's Jered Weaver (2.34) at this point.

For comparison's sake, here's a list of all the pitching triple-crown winners since 1995 (the inception of the Division Series):

Year  Lg   Player                 Team                      ERA   W      K
1997   AL   Roger Clemens    Blue Jays              2.05   21   292
1998   AL   Roger Clemens    Blue Jays              2.65   20   271
1999   AL   Pedro Martinez   Red Sox                 2.07   23   313
2002  NL   Randy Johnson   Diamondbacks   2.32   24   334
2006  AL   Johan Santana     Twins                     2.45   19   277
2007  NL   Jake Peavy           Padres                    2.54   19   240

The only guys on this list to make the playoffs in their triple-crown years were Pedro in '99, Johnson in '02, and Santana in '06. How did they fare? Martinez had the aforementioned legendary relief appearance, but he bowed out of game 1 in the fourth inning due to injury, his only other outing.

In '02 the Big Unit still had Curt Schilling by his side, but he took the loss in game 1 as the Dbacks were swept 3-0 by St. Louis. Ditto Santana in '06, as the Twins ace took the mound and the L in the opener en route to an Oakland sweep. Aside from Pedro in '03, no triple-crown winner has even made a significant contribution to his team winning a game under the current playoff structure, let alone single-handedly locking down the entire series.

What about MVP pitchers you say? Glad you asked. There have been exactly four guys to win most valuable player in since 1980, and only one of them was a starter: Roger Clemens in 1986.  Clemens went 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 Ks during the regular season. The Rocket was mediocre during those playoffs, dominating neither series and posting a 3.97 ERA. The Sox won 2 out of the 5 games he started. You get the point: he didn't hold ultimate sway over the series.

So, is it possible Justin Verlander can single-handedly win a playoff round? It's possible. But not probable, as we see from the above lists. Sure, there have been guys to do so in the past (see: Orel Hershiser, 1988) but they usually aren't the people we expect to do it by applying how the regular season played out to the postseason model. Knowing this, any fan of the Red Sox should welcome the opportunity to beat up on Verlander's staff-mates over another tousle with Mike Napoli and the Rangers.
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In case you were wondering, here's how Verlander's numbers look against current playoff teams:

Split      W L  ERA GS CG   IP  H R ER HR BB SO BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
Boston     1 0 1.72  2  0 15.2 10 3  3  2  2 12 58 0.766  6.9  6.00
New York   0 0 4.50  2  0 12.0 11 6  6  1  8 16 53 1.583 12.0  2.00
Texas      0 1 2.00  1  1  9.0  6 2  2  0  1  4 33 0.778  4.0  4.00

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2011.

Granderson Grabbing Lead In MVP Race?

With New York coming into town, 2 games back of the division lead and 6.5 games up on the Rays for the Wild Card, the upcoming three game set is significant, but probably won't decide anything in the long run. Which allows me to focus on the individual awards, things we all know are far more important and entertaining than any team accomplishments. 

Lately, the focus of the AL MVP race has been focused with laser-like intensity on Yankees centerfielder Curtis Granderson. Between his participation in the tri-headed grand slam extravaganza last week against the A's, and mashing his 37th and 38th homers yesterday in Baltimore, it seems as if he's grabbing this thing by the face. 

Since I love arbitrary statistical splits, let's take a look at his numbers from the last 18 games. His batting line is an impressive .304/.435/.797, which works out to a...wait for it...1.232 OPS during that stretch. The man is carrying the Yanks right now. Add in his 10 home runs and 18 RBI over the 18 games, and it's no wonder Granderson's staring at me over my morning coffee, monopolizing the baseball highlights. Aside from personal issues of baseball players watching me through television screens, the Yankee outfielder is giving the rest of the league major fits as well.

So, how is his competition playing out? A quick look:

(league leaders in bold ital)

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	fWAR	rWAR
Bautista	.312	.452	.640	1.092	37	83	7.8	7.9
Ellsbury	.312	.369	.521	.889	23	82	7.4	6.4
Pedroia	.308	.398	.474	.872	17	71	7.2	6.6
Granderson	.278	.376	.595	.971	38	107	6.8	5.4
Gonzalez	.345	.406	.559	.965	23	103	5.8	6.0

Clearly, these stats do a bit of a disservice to players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, as a good portion of their value comes in base running and defense, but they're more than holding their own in the offensive categories as well. Jose Bautista, despite falling back to the pack a little lately, is still having the best year statistically, while Adrian Gonzalez is making a charge over the last week, clawing his way back into the discussion.

Having said all that, it's looking good for Granderson, because the assumption is that voters will split on the Red Sox candidates, and Bautista won't get the support on a non-playoff contender. Which leaves the Yankees outfielder. My guess is that he takes it, unless one of the guys from Boston gets red hot the rest of the way and his teammates fall off. Stay tuned.