The Greek God of...Limping?

Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images

Advanced metrics. At times, they can be a tough tool to rely on--especially when it comes to measuring a fielder's effectiveness. Currently, the best--or at least most widely used system is Fangraph's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

I won't get into how it's calculated--Fangraphs itself does a much better job than I can pretend to here for those interested--and admittedly it has its flaws like any method of measuring a player's effectiveness, but over a period of a few seasons (preferably at least three) it can be more than a decent indicator of a player's worth in the field.

Which is why it's so tough to get a bead on Kevin Youkilis' effectiveness as a thirdbaseman. 

I don't want to think this thing to death, but after seeing David Ortiz coming back for another season following yesterday's arbitration settlement, it seems to me that this will be Papi's final year in Boston regardless of how he performs in 2012 (historically, hitters just can't hack it at age 37 and beyond without steroids). Especially with Youkilis' injury trouble over the past few years and Will Middlebrooks, who by all accounts looks like a spectacular defender, looming on the horizon, it seems as if Youk is primed to be the DH in 2013.

That is, if he re-signs after this season (his 4-year, $40 million dollar contract is up at the end of the year.) But contract talks and injuries aside, we're definitely in for another season of Youkilis at third for better or worse. 

So how to the numbers bear out?

Back to that pesky UZR. The 32-year old came in a below league average rating of -2.3, and -3.7 when prorated over 150 games last season. Compare that to league leaders Adrian Beltre (AL-12.3) and Placido Polanco (NL-14.0), and you can see that Youkilis' numbers don't exactly inspire confidence.

I can hear all of you screaming "But he was injured!"

Okay, okay, calm down. You're right. But can it safely be argued that he'll be healthy enough to get in a full season at the hot corner in 2012, which by the way, would only be his second at the position in his career? Probably not. 

The problem comes in that he doesn't really have the games played at third to effectively measure his performance over a three year period. He racked up 948.2 innings at the position in 2011, his next highest total coming in 2004--his rookie-season, in which he rated a whopping 7.0. 2009 saw him play 494.1 innings with another dismal -1.4 UZR rating. 

Will all of this add up to a new thirdbaseman for Boston in 2013? Possibly. My guess is that he will still be a valuable enough hitter to warrant keeping around at DH, despite his poor showing last year. Hopefully he stays injury free and earns himself an extension.

Keep Papi, No Matter the Cost

David Ortiz looks like the Cookie Monster. Does this make him a good DH? Not necessarily. But among baseball players who resemble Sesame Street characters, he's almost certainly the best of the bunch. And that's got to be worth something.

Why does any of this matter?  Aside from indicating that I've been spending entirely too much time with my 3-year old daughter, Mr. Ortiz is up for an extremely rare arbitration hearing this Monday in Florida--a situation which is summed up nicely here by WEEI.com's Alex Speier. He  writes:

"The $3.85 million difference between the salary that Ortiz is requesting ($16.5 million) and the one that the team is offering ($12.65 million) could, in theory, represent the cost of acquiring a player like Matt Garza near the trade deadline."

Clearly, money spent now is money they won't have in July. Obviously Ben Cherington does not want to burn all of his resources immediately and hang himself out to dry at the trading deadline.

Yet.

What would they do at DH should Ortiz win the hearing and the team choose not to sign him? One possibility would be to give Papi's spot to Kevin Youkilis (which could help some of his injury issues) and hand third base to top prospect Will Middlebrooks. An exciting thought, but Middlebrooks isn't ready just yet, though Soxprospects.com compares his career track to Scott Rolen's.

Rumors are abound that a settlement will be reached, but if Ortiz gets his $16.5 million asking price (as opposed to Boston's $12.65), the team should take it and move on. Sure, he abuses the cookie dough from time to time, but no one's been better than he has at designated hitting over the past few years, despite fan perception that he is falling off.

A quick look at the numbers easily demonstrates this. Last year, of the 11 hitters who had at least 500 at-bats at the position, Ortiz was by far the best. Fangraphs has number 34 sitting atop the fWAR leaders with a total of 4.2, followed by Michael Young of the Rangers at 3.8 and Chicago's Paul Konerko at 3.1. No one else even topped three.

Papi put up a slash line of .309/.398/.554 with 29 homers and 98 RBIs in 2011. Those number would be stunningly hard to replace at this point in the offseason, even with a Youkilis--who is engaged to Tom Brady's sister oh by the way--slash Middlebrooks shift.

From 2009 (a season in which his power stroke, and therefore his career, was considered done) through last year, Ortiz is third in fWAR with 7.0. That's just behind free agent Johnny Damon's 7.3 and Detroit's Victor Martinez's 10.6. The difference being Papi is primarily a DH while Damon added slightly to his value by playing the outfield and ditto Martinez at catcher.

In any case, David Ortiz still has tremendous value on and off the field and Boston will be better with him in the lineup whether they lose the hearing or not.