The likelihood of Ben Cherington splurging on a multi-year deal for Cardinals free-agent starter Edwin Jackson is next to nothing, what with the money tree at Fenway finally ceasing to sprout leaves this winter. Yet the idea of a one-year deal for the Boras client remains intriguing, although probably not feasible at this point, as Peter Gammons tweeted earlier that "Jackson claims 3-4 multi-year offers," with the Sox not likely to be one of those doing the offering.
Hypothetically, would a multi-year deal be worth it? My gut tells me no. Why would Boston splurge on a starter who they would clearly have to overpay to bring in, simply to replace John Lackey's innings and bloated contract? I'm having nightmares of Jackson eating his way to an 8-14 record for the third straight season while gravity pulls his growing waistline closer and closer to the infield dirt.
A closer look at the projections backs this up (well, maybe not the weight thing, but numbers-wise.) Bill James predicts an 11-12 record, and an ERA north of 4.00 with just over 200 innings thrown for the 28-year old this upcoming season. Good numbers for a guy who would slot in as the fourth starter, but not the sort that should have gobs of cash thrown at them. Haven't there been enough recent examples for teams to learn this?
Luckily, with the Dice-K and Lackey disasters staring them in the face, the Sox brass seems to be making the smart play here. But it remains to be seen if the market will force Jackson into a 1-year deal, possibly putting Boston back in the running. Again, this looking impossible now with Ken Rosenthal and Gammons stating Jackson has received several multi-year offers.
Prediction? Someone will give him a 3 or 4 year deal. He's only 28, shows signs that he is finally "getting it," and still rocks that no-hit stuff he's had since the Dodgers drafted him in the sixth-round back in '01. As we have seen time and time again, that sort of talent will always seduce someone.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Jose Iglesias: Here's Hoping
Shortstop. It's been a bit of a sore spot since 2004. You remember, the moment Theo made the trade, shipping Nomar to the Cubs and acquiring postseason stalwart Orlando Cabrera, jump-starting the team in the process and propelling them to the title.
Take a moment...bask in it. There you go.
The turnstile has been a-spinnin' from that point on.
So to ask the fanbase to endure a wildly unexciting amalgamation of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto--or, Mick Apuntoviles as I like to call them--for a season is not exactly out of the ordinary. As unconventional as a shortstop platoon is, they can probably keep the position afloat until something better comes along.
Punto, a lumpy approximation of a middle infielder, is flashy with the glove--a notion which probably marks the first time the words flashy and Punto have found themselves in the same vicinity of one another. The former Cardinal split time at third, the outfield, yet saw just eight games as short last season. In any case, Bobby Valentine will probably see above average defense out of Lumps...err, Punto.
Aviles is an average utility man at best, slightly below palatable with both the glove and bat. Not much more to say than that. These two will not be seen posing with pornstars and lighting up the talk radio airwaves in 2012. The best case scenario for these two is that they go completely unnoticed--which would mean they're doing their jobs without screwing up too badly.
But. There is hope on the horizon. Fresh, doe-eyed hope, and it comes in the form of 22-year old prospect Jose Iglesias. So much hope that soxprospects.com describes him as "a future perrenial gold-glove shortstop." The kid is a whiz at short. He's got the ability to step on the field opening day.
The future with the latest Mr. Prospect is well, lumpier than many think. As a public service, I'm cautioning everyone to hold off on their excitement about Iglesias before it even really begins, which it probably will sometime in 2012.
Specifically, he needs to make some serious adjustments at the plate.
For a quick and dirty comparison, Dustin Pedroia posted an OPS of .810 during his final full season in the minors ('06), while Iglesias put up a paltry .554 last year with Pawtucket. Yeesh. That would put him right around .100 points below Punto's career average of .652 in 11 seasons. Nobody expects Iglesias to step in and remind people of the plucky second baseman, but those numbers won't put him much higher than a defensive replacement on a major league roster.
Iglesias likely make an appearance in spring training, season himself in Pawtucket, and be recalled when Valentine and everyone else gets fed up with Mr. Lumps and his sidekick.
But while this beacon of hope will probably be on the minds of many fans this summer as the public begins screaming for shortstop options following the surprising exit of Marco Scutaro, don't look for Iglesias to become a major league star--this season or any time after that.
Take a moment...bask in it. There you go.
The turnstile has been a-spinnin' from that point on.
So to ask the fanbase to endure a wildly unexciting amalgamation of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto--or, Mick Apuntoviles as I like to call them--for a season is not exactly out of the ordinary. As unconventional as a shortstop platoon is, they can probably keep the position afloat until something better comes along.
Punto, a lumpy approximation of a middle infielder, is flashy with the glove--a notion which probably marks the first time the words flashy and Punto have found themselves in the same vicinity of one another. The former Cardinal split time at third, the outfield, yet saw just eight games as short last season. In any case, Bobby Valentine will probably see above average defense out of Lumps...err, Punto.
Aviles is an average utility man at best, slightly below palatable with both the glove and bat. Not much more to say than that. These two will not be seen posing with pornstars and lighting up the talk radio airwaves in 2012. The best case scenario for these two is that they go completely unnoticed--which would mean they're doing their jobs without screwing up too badly.
But. There is hope on the horizon. Fresh, doe-eyed hope, and it comes in the form of 22-year old prospect Jose Iglesias. So much hope that soxprospects.com describes him as "a future perrenial gold-glove shortstop." The kid is a whiz at short. He's got the ability to step on the field opening day.
The future with the latest Mr. Prospect is well, lumpier than many think. As a public service, I'm cautioning everyone to hold off on their excitement about Iglesias before it even really begins, which it probably will sometime in 2012.
Specifically, he needs to make some serious adjustments at the plate.
For a quick and dirty comparison, Dustin Pedroia posted an OPS of .810 during his final full season in the minors ('06), while Iglesias put up a paltry .554 last year with Pawtucket. Yeesh. That would put him right around .100 points below Punto's career average of .652 in 11 seasons. Nobody expects Iglesias to step in and remind people of the plucky second baseman, but those numbers won't put him much higher than a defensive replacement on a major league roster.
Iglesias likely make an appearance in spring training, season himself in Pawtucket, and be recalled when Valentine and everyone else gets fed up with Mr. Lumps and his sidekick.
But while this beacon of hope will probably be on the minds of many fans this summer as the public begins screaming for shortstop options following the surprising exit of Marco Scutaro, don't look for Iglesias to become a major league star--this season or any time after that.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Yoenis Cespedes: The Showcase
Cuban Defector. High jump master. Core strength enthusiast. Mother lover. Baseball wizard. Soon to be major-league outfielder.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Yoenis Cespedes' workout video:
If you didn't make it to the end, you clearly weren't interested in witnessing an unsettling shot of a pig spit-roasting, as well as a rather fattish man dancing awkwardly with a pair of females.
Because in a video that references Star Wars, employs the services of Jay-Z along with theme music akin to Kenny G's dream soundtrack, but manages to reveal next to nothing about the actual baseball player, one simply must include horrible salsa dancing.
After being officially declared a free-agent this week by MLB, "El Talento" is currently making the rounds, working out for the usual suspects--the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.
But my question is this: how can this sideshow sign with anyone but the ultimate circus that is the Miami Marlins? Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Zambrano, the new stadium, brand spanking new unis, and El Talento.
This brings to mind a certain phrase involving icing being applied to baked goods.
Yep. It's exactly like that.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Yoenis Cespedes' workout video:
If you didn't make it to the end, you clearly weren't interested in witnessing an unsettling shot of a pig spit-roasting, as well as a rather fattish man dancing awkwardly with a pair of females.
Because in a video that references Star Wars, employs the services of Jay-Z along with theme music akin to Kenny G's dream soundtrack, but manages to reveal next to nothing about the actual baseball player, one simply must include horrible salsa dancing.
After being officially declared a free-agent this week by MLB, "El Talento" is currently making the rounds, working out for the usual suspects--the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.
But my question is this: how can this sideshow sign with anyone but the ultimate circus that is the Miami Marlins? Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Zambrano, the new stadium, brand spanking new unis, and El Talento.
This brings to mind a certain phrase involving icing being applied to baked goods.
Yep. It's exactly like that.
I'm back
I took a hiatus to finish up my degree in English, surf internet porn, and incessantly watch Dr. Steve Brule instructional videos. Of course during my time of "hard work" and "introspection," the organization ends up having the most news-worthy and interesting stretch since October 2007.
So it goes.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Verlander: Sox Potential Playoff Nightmare?
The dreaded phrase: "If The Season Ended Today" crossed my mind last night for one very specific, fear inducing reason: Justin Verlander. When media-types are uttering phrases like "Pedro '99" in regards to an opposing pitcher, you probably don't want to see that guy on the mound, especially I.T.S.E.T.
The popular consensus seems to have overcome the pitcher-bias for many and has shifted favorite status to the Tigers starter in the AL MVP race. At least for today. Following yesterday's win over the White Sox, even mlb.com tweeted this morning: "Justin Verlander's win total is old enough to drink..." No matter how one describes it, this is Verlander's summer, and he & both his 100MPH fastballs will be remembered years from now. That said, things could shift back in the direction of Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury if the Tigers fall too far out of contention.
A quick check of the standings shows that the 10-0 bludgeoning at the hands of the Rangers last night dropped Boston a half game behind the Yankees, which means that New York would draw Detroit as of this writing. Clearly, Texas can match up with either East power, so missing Verlander wouldn't exactly leave Bostonians dancing in the streets. But whether or not the Red Sox are in line to face Verlander's Tigers on September 3rd is not entirely the issue.
The question on the table here is: can Verlander (essentially) win a playoff series by himself?
The quick answer is yes. Of course he can get hot and take over the division series, and if things line up right in the LCS, he can conceivably dominate the next round too. But how many times has it actually happened? Has a pitcher, with essentially soft-serv ice cream machines lining up behind him in the rotation, ever been able to pull something like that off?
The obvious comparison that springs to mind is Pedro Martinez in 1999. Robbed of the Cy Young-MVP sweep that season (with Ivan Rodriguez taking the MVP trophy for the Rangers), Pedro was in a rotation that saw Kent Mercker start game 1 of the LCS. So you can pretty much imagine the quality of the other starters on that squad. Verlander is in a similar situation this year.
Of course, the reason Pedro didn't pitch the first game against the Yankees that year, was that he was too busy putting on one of the greatest pitching performances playoff baseball has ever seen, tossing six no-hit innings in relief the previous game to clinch the LDS over the Indians.
Like no. 45 did for the Red Sox that year, Verlander has a chance at the AL pitching triple-crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts). He's got a big lead in wins and strikeouts, and his 2.34 ERA is just a tick behind LA's Jered Weaver (2.34) at this point.
For comparison's sake, here's a list of all the pitching triple-crown winners since 1995 (the inception of the Division Series):
Year Lg Player Team ERA W K
1997 AL Roger Clemens Blue Jays 2.05 21 292
1998 AL Roger Clemens Blue Jays 2.65 20 271
1999 AL Pedro Martinez Red Sox 2.07 23 313
2002 NL Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 2.32 24 334
2006 AL Johan Santana Twins 2.45 19 277
2007 NL Jake Peavy Padres 2.54 19 240
The only guys on this list to make the playoffs in their triple-crown years were Pedro in '99, Johnson in '02, and Santana in '06. How did they fare? Martinez had the aforementioned legendary relief appearance, but he bowed out of game 1 in the fourth inning due to injury, his only other outing.
In '02 the Big Unit still had Curt Schilling by his side, but he took the loss in game 1 as the Dbacks were swept 3-0 by St. Louis. Ditto Santana in '06, as the Twins ace took the mound and the L in the opener en route to an Oakland sweep. Aside from Pedro in '03, no triple-crown winner has even made a significant contribution to his team winning a game under the current playoff structure, let alone single-handedly locking down the entire series.
What about MVP pitchers you say? Glad you asked. There have been exactly four guys to win most valuable player in since 1980, and only one of them was a starter: Roger Clemens in 1986. Clemens went 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 Ks during the regular season. The Rocket was mediocre during those playoffs, dominating neither series and posting a 3.97 ERA. The Sox won 2 out of the 5 games he started. You get the point: he didn't hold ultimate sway over the series.
So, is it possible Justin Verlander can single-handedly win a playoff round? It's possible. But not probable, as we see from the above lists. Sure, there have been guys to do so in the past (see: Orel Hershiser, 1988) but they usually aren't the people we expect to do it by applying how the regular season played out to the postseason model. Knowing this, any fan of the Red Sox should welcome the opportunity to beat up on Verlander's staff-mates over another tousle with Mike Napoli and the Rangers.
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In case you were wondering, here's how Verlander's numbers look against current playoff teams:
Generated 9/3/2011.
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| Verlander: product of Goochland, VA |
A quick check of the standings shows that the 10-0 bludgeoning at the hands of the Rangers last night dropped Boston a half game behind the Yankees, which means that New York would draw Detroit as of this writing. Clearly, Texas can match up with either East power, so missing Verlander wouldn't exactly leave Bostonians dancing in the streets. But whether or not the Red Sox are in line to face Verlander's Tigers on September 3rd is not entirely the issue.
The question on the table here is: can Verlander (essentially) win a playoff series by himself?
The quick answer is yes. Of course he can get hot and take over the division series, and if things line up right in the LCS, he can conceivably dominate the next round too. But how many times has it actually happened? Has a pitcher, with essentially soft-serv ice cream machines lining up behind him in the rotation, ever been able to pull something like that off?
The obvious comparison that springs to mind is Pedro Martinez in 1999. Robbed of the Cy Young-MVP sweep that season (with Ivan Rodriguez taking the MVP trophy for the Rangers), Pedro was in a rotation that saw Kent Mercker start game 1 of the LCS. So you can pretty much imagine the quality of the other starters on that squad. Verlander is in a similar situation this year.
Of course, the reason Pedro didn't pitch the first game against the Yankees that year, was that he was too busy putting on one of the greatest pitching performances playoff baseball has ever seen, tossing six no-hit innings in relief the previous game to clinch the LDS over the Indians.
Like no. 45 did for the Red Sox that year, Verlander has a chance at the AL pitching triple-crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts). He's got a big lead in wins and strikeouts, and his 2.34 ERA is just a tick behind LA's Jered Weaver (2.34) at this point.
For comparison's sake, here's a list of all the pitching triple-crown winners since 1995 (the inception of the Division Series):
Year Lg Player Team ERA W K
1997 AL Roger Clemens Blue Jays 2.05 21 292
1998 AL Roger Clemens Blue Jays 2.65 20 271
1999 AL Pedro Martinez Red Sox 2.07 23 313
2002 NL Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 2.32 24 334
2006 AL Johan Santana Twins 2.45 19 277
2007 NL Jake Peavy Padres 2.54 19 240
The only guys on this list to make the playoffs in their triple-crown years were Pedro in '99, Johnson in '02, and Santana in '06. How did they fare? Martinez had the aforementioned legendary relief appearance, but he bowed out of game 1 in the fourth inning due to injury, his only other outing.
In '02 the Big Unit still had Curt Schilling by his side, but he took the loss in game 1 as the Dbacks were swept 3-0 by St. Louis. Ditto Santana in '06, as the Twins ace took the mound and the L in the opener en route to an Oakland sweep. Aside from Pedro in '03, no triple-crown winner has even made a significant contribution to his team winning a game under the current playoff structure, let alone single-handedly locking down the entire series.
What about MVP pitchers you say? Glad you asked. There have been exactly four guys to win most valuable player in since 1980, and only one of them was a starter: Roger Clemens in 1986. Clemens went 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 Ks during the regular season. The Rocket was mediocre during those playoffs, dominating neither series and posting a 3.97 ERA. The Sox won 2 out of the 5 games he started. You get the point: he didn't hold ultimate sway over the series.
So, is it possible Justin Verlander can single-handedly win a playoff round? It's possible. But not probable, as we see from the above lists. Sure, there have been guys to do so in the past (see: Orel Hershiser, 1988) but they usually aren't the people we expect to do it by applying how the regular season played out to the postseason model. Knowing this, any fan of the Red Sox should welcome the opportunity to beat up on Verlander's staff-mates over another tousle with Mike Napoli and the Rangers.
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In case you were wondering, here's how Verlander's numbers look against current playoff teams:
Split W L ERA GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB Boston 1 0 1.72 2 0 15.2 10 3 3 2 2 12 58 0.766 6.9 6.00 New York 0 0 4.50 2 0 12.0 11 6 6 1 8 16 53 1.583 12.0 2.00 Texas 0 1 2.00 1 1 9.0 6 2 2 0 1 4 33 0.778 4.0 4.00Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2011.
Friday, September 2, 2011
5 Random Observations: Yankees Series
I'm sure most of you were sleeping through this series, what with meaningless games dragging on over the four-hour mark mid-week in September and whatnot. Even the players are complaining at this point. In any case, the Sox held a 1.5 game lead coming into the series, and a half-game margin going out, leaving New York up 8.5 games over Tampa in the Wild Card race. Without further adieu, here's a few notes about the last three days:
1. Long, Long, Long: We all know these rivalry games are as long as John Lackey's face after a trip to a Mensa meeting, but Jon Lester's first inning in last night's 4-2 loss was brutal. It took the Boston ace 43 pitches to strike out the side, which sent me on one of my many empty stat searches. I tried in vane to find the record for the highest amount of pitches thrown while striking out the side, but came up with nothing. My guess is this inning has to be close. Somebody needs to get on this so I can sleep at night.
2. MVP Watch: I'm probably overly obsessed with this award, but with four AL candidates showcasing their talents in this one series alone, the individual race was more in the forefront than the chase for the pennant. That said, in 15 games against Boston, Curtis Granderson has hit just .218/.377/.436, and he didn't fare much better over this last three-game set. He did, however, make this run-saving grab off the bat of Jed Lowrie in the 6th inning last night:
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| Granderson: "These grass stains will be hell to remove." |
Granderson, who seemed to be the favorite to take the award coming into the series, did nothing to push the needle in either direction, while Jacoby Ellsbury continued to make his case, hitting .364 with a 1.264 OPS over the past three days.
3. Rocco Cervelli: The boisterous New York catcher has been dubbed by many "The Yankee Clapper" following his antics during the past week, which is okay by me. Endearing to New York fans and rage-inducing to Boston rooters, Cervelli and his new moniker simultaneously prove puns can still be hilarious and that this rivalry hasn't lost its punch. Anything that stirs things up like that among playoff contenders this late in the season is a welcome sight.
4. On Second Thought: This incident deserves a closer look. Here are the four stages of emotion, as occurred in Tuesday's scuffle:
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| Anger. |
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| Confusion. |
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| Revenge (Sabathia)/Dementia (Posada). |
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| Penis Envy. |
5. Adrian Gonzalez/David Ortiz: You may have noticed the Boston firstbaseman's torrid pace was slowed down considerably by Yankee pitching. He posted just a .167/.286/.250 slash line, with 0 RBI this time around. Meanwhile, Big Papi is as hot as he's ever been. Since returning from a 10-day hiatus on August 24th, he's hit .500/.559/1.067, with 4 HRs and 9 RBI over eight games. Yikes.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Do Not Boo This Man
I'm assuming if you're reading this, you're not a major leaguer. I'm also going to take for granted that if you've played baseball in the outfield, you've made an error similar to this one Josh Reddick committed last night:
The ball scoots by you on the outfield grass, and you have to go chasing it like CC Sabathia after a Little Debbie's truck. It's a squirm inducing situation for both the player and whomever's witnessing the red-faced march--a play I like to call the outfielder's walk of shame. Well, maybe scramble of shame. Hot embarrassment combined with zealous urgency to recover your position as your baseball life flashes before your eyes. Whatever you dub it, it's not fun for anyone.
Okay, so maybe that was just me as a little-leaguer.
It's certainly a bloodbath in that right field corner sometimes, and that play off of Eric Chavez's bat is probably one most outfielders would've flubbed. Same thing happened to Carlos Gonzalez in Arizona last night. Reddick immediately dropped his head after the ball caromed off the wall, and the walk began.
So, if you find yourself snickering at a play like this, remember: you did it too. Admit it. Just a public service announcement from Life on the Wagon. On a side note, Reddick qualified, his UZR of 8.1 would put him sixth defensively among AL outfielders. So there.
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| Walk of Shame: Not a reference to your typical Sunday Morning. |
The ball scoots by you on the outfield grass, and you have to go chasing it like CC Sabathia after a Little Debbie's truck. It's a squirm inducing situation for both the player and whomever's witnessing the red-faced march--a play I like to call the outfielder's walk of shame. Well, maybe scramble of shame. Hot embarrassment combined with zealous urgency to recover your position as your baseball life flashes before your eyes. Whatever you dub it, it's not fun for anyone.
Okay, so maybe that was just me as a little-leaguer.
It's certainly a bloodbath in that right field corner sometimes, and that play off of Eric Chavez's bat is probably one most outfielders would've flubbed. Same thing happened to Carlos Gonzalez in Arizona last night. Reddick immediately dropped his head after the ball caromed off the wall, and the walk began.
So, if you find yourself snickering at a play like this, remember: you did it too. Admit it. Just a public service announcement from Life on the Wagon. On a side note, Reddick qualified, his UZR of 8.1 would put him sixth defensively among AL outfielders. So there.
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