The likelihood of Ben Cherington splurging on a multi-year deal for Cardinals free-agent starter Edwin Jackson is next to nothing, what with the money tree at Fenway finally ceasing to sprout leaves this winter. Yet the idea of a one-year deal for the Boras client remains intriguing, although probably not feasible at this point, as Peter Gammons tweeted earlier that "Jackson claims 3-4 multi-year offers," with the Sox not likely to be one of those doing the offering.
Hypothetically, would a multi-year deal be worth it? My gut tells me no. Why would Boston splurge on a starter who they would clearly have to overpay to bring in, simply to replace John Lackey's innings and bloated contract? I'm having nightmares of Jackson eating his way to an 8-14 record for the third straight season while gravity pulls his growing waistline closer and closer to the infield dirt.
A closer look at the projections backs this up (well, maybe not the weight thing, but numbers-wise.) Bill James predicts an 11-12 record, and an ERA north of 4.00 with just over 200 innings thrown for the 28-year old this upcoming season. Good numbers for a guy who would slot in as the fourth starter, but not the sort that should have gobs of cash thrown at them. Haven't there been enough recent examples for teams to learn this?
Luckily, with the Dice-K and Lackey disasters staring them in the face, the Sox brass seems to be making the smart play here. But it remains to be seen if the market will force Jackson into a 1-year deal, possibly putting Boston back in the running. Again, this looking impossible now with Ken Rosenthal and Gammons stating Jackson has received several multi-year offers.
Prediction? Someone will give him a 3 or 4 year deal. He's only 28, shows signs that he is finally "getting it," and still rocks that no-hit stuff he's had since the Dodgers drafted him in the sixth-round back in '01. As we have seen time and time again, that sort of talent will always seduce someone.
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